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Energy Efficiency Potential and Goals Studies


In 2004 the Commission adopted aggressive ten-year energy savings goals to meets its commitment to make Energy Efficiency the resource of first choice, as established in the Energy Action Plan. The goals serve several important roles in the State regulatory framework:


1. To provide guidance for the utilities’ next energy efficiency portfolios: The energy efficiency goals were first adopted in Decision (D.)04-09-060 to set the benchmark that the IOU energy efficiency programs were expected to achieve. The goal-setting process set a framework for the program planning cycle, determining the targets for utility energy efficiency program portfolio performance. Based on this decision, the CPUC adopted aggressive annual and ten-year cumulative goals for verified electric and natural gas savings and allowed the utilities to develop their own programs and portfolios. To measure the IOUs' progress toward their goals, the Energy Division developed an extensive evaluation, measurement and verification program (EM&V) to verify that utility programs meet their commitments. Since D.04-09-060, the Commission adopted interim goals in 2007 in D.07-10-032, D.09-09-047, and D.12-05-015. 


2. To update the forecast for energy procurement planning: As the Energy Action Plan established energy efficiency as first in the loading order, the state must adopt a long-term benchmark that can be used in utility energy procurement planning. The IOUs' energy efficiency goals adopted from this study will be incorporated into the California Energy Commission’s (CEC's) Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR), which establishes the demand forecast for long-term procurement planning. This forecast is an input into the CPUC’s Long Term Procurement Planning Proceeding (LTPP), which determines the generation resources that energy efficiency is expected to offset in order to minimize costs to ratepayers.*


3. To inform strategic contributions to California’s greenhouse gas reduction targets: The California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32) relies on intensified energy efficiency efforts across California. The California Air Resources Board's (CARB's) Scoping Plan for Assembly Bill (AB) 32 establishes a statewide energy efficiency target of at least 32,000 GWh and 800 million therms by 2020, making it the second largest component in the State’s overall emissions reduction program. Future EE goals updates will have more implications for forecasts of GHG reductions to be provided by EE policy initiatives.


4. To set benchmarks for shareholder incentives: In D.07-09-043, the Commission adopted shareholder incentives for the 2006-2008 energy efficiency program cycle to encourage the utilities to meet or surpass their energy efficiency goals. In D.13-09-023, the Commission modified the shareholder incentive mechanism for the 2013-14 program cycle to again tie shareholder earning to energy savings accomplishments.


Goals Background and History


Since 2003, the CPUC has established energy efficiency goals based on legislative requirements set in SB 1037.

  • History of Goals: Provides background of Commission decisions that have established the structure and application of goals. 
  • Adopted Goals: Table of currently adopted goals and IOUs historical progress toward achievement of goals 2004-2011.

2015 Potential & Goals Study

The 2015 Study is an “update study” relative to the 2013 Study. The model developed in the 2013 Study serves as the methodological basis for this study. For more information, contact Aaron Lu at


9/25/2015 Final Report and Goals release

7/13/2015 Draft Report and Goals release via Proposed Decision and Commenting period

5/15/2015 Draft Report release via Ruling and Commenting period

4/21/2015 Draft Results and Comments Webinar

  • Response to 3/17 Workshop Comments
  • Calibration memo
  • Staff will be hosting a webinar on April 21, Tuesday to provide a venue to discuss comments to the 2015 Potential Study draft results. The goal of the webinar is to have a venue for stakeholders to see the comments from all stakeholders grouped by topic (e.g. Res/Com, AIMS, modeling, etc.). The webinar will also be a venue for stakeholders to elaborate on their comments if they feel necessary. In addition, the CPUC and Navigant will provide some initial responses to the comments. Please understand the scope of the discussion will focused on existing comments about the draft results and technical topics. Any big picture policy issues will be deferred to the formal proceeding and formal comment period. Staff and Navigant may not have responded to all the comments by the date of the webinar but will do the best to provide feedback.

3/17/2015 Draft Results Workshop

2/17/2015 Model Calibration Webinar - Slides

  • The Potential and Goals team will be hosting an online webinar to present and discuss calibration of the Potential model. Participants have asked questions and commented many concerns surrounding calibration. This webinar aims to answer those questions and clarifies those concerns.

1/30/2015 Model Update from 10-12 Evaluation Workshop - Slides

  • Navigant and CPUC staff are hosting a DAWG in person workshop to discuss the use of the latest EMV updates in regards to the Potential and Goals Study Update. The workshop will aim to let stakeholders review the methodology used to update the model before the March 2015 draft release.

  • Comments can be provided at Search for "2015P&G EMV Summary" in search text box.
  • Responses to Comments

1/13/2015 Industry Standard Practice Webinar - Slides

  • Navigant and CPUC staff are hosting a webinar to discuss Industrial Standard Practices in regards to the Potential and Goals Study Update. Stakeholders requested this discussion during the kickoff stakeholder workshop held on 11/7/2014.

11/7/2014 Potential and Goals Study Kickoff Workshop - Slides

  • Initiate public discussion of the 2015 CPUC Energy Efficiency Potential Study

The RFP and the Scope of Work for 13PS5048 can be found in the links. 

Timeline of 2015 Study:

Action Date

Action Item


Potential and Goals study kickoff


Potential and Goals Industry Standard Practice webinar


Potential and Goals model update with 10-12 evaluation workshop


Potential and Goals calibration webinar


Potential and Goals model release and draft results workshop


Potential and Goals draft results informal comments deadline


Potential and Goals response to comments webinar


Potential and Goals draft report release via ruling


Potential and Goals draft report comments deadline


Potential and Goals AAEE disaggregation & load shape workshop


Potential and Goals draft AAEE forecast release


Final Goals adopted by Decision

To participate in the technical stakeholder process for the study, please visit the Demand Analysis Working Group's website for the calender of meetings and locations.

For more information, contact Aaron Lu at

2013 Potential & Goals Study

The primary objective of the Potential & Goals Study is to provide a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative assessment of energy savings potential from a variety of perspectives in order to help the CPUC frame and choose energy efficiency goals in a way that best meets the CPUC’s policy objectives. As Phase 2 of the Analysis to Update Energy Efficiency Potential, Goals, and Targets, this study builds upon the 2011 Potential Study to establish scenarios for demand forecasting and IOU program planning.  The 2013 Potential & Goals Study will inform the 2015 portfolio guidance.  For more information, contact Dina Mackin at


The 2013 Potential and Goals Study final were published on March 3, 2014 and will be voted on by the Commission for adoption:

2013 Potential and Goals Model

Analytica Installer File (you will need this to run the model if you have not installed it with prior releases. Note this installs a 64-bit Player Edition of Analytica)

Three important notes regarding model size and run times:
1.The model file is very large (~620MB) due to the size and dimension of the data it contains. It has been compressed in a zip file, but it will slow down other functionality on most computers. Consider shutting down other applications before opening the model. The model takes a couple of minutes to load when opening.
2.Most computers are capable of running results for a single service territory at a time. Running all commercial building types for a single service territory should take less than 10-15 minutes. Running a single building type should take a few minutes.
3.Running multiple service territories at once may crash some machines because it requires computational capacity beyond that of a typical desktop machine. A dialogue box will notify the user when interface settings require computational requirements that are beyond most standard computers’ capabilities.

Site and Measures Database

The Industrial Assessment Center (IAC) Database available here references information from a Department of Energy initiative. This initiative carried out by the IAC includes identifying potential energy savings in industrial facilities. The IAC’s 24 centers found around the country provide free energy efficiency assessments to qualifying facilities in their vicinity (


This Access Database available here organizes the IAC source data to facilitate filtering and sorting for various NAICS subsectors, end-uses, fuels, vintages, etc. The original IAC source data is maintained by DOE and available for download at the following link as an Excel Zip file (

The 2013 Potential and Goals Study draft were published on November 26, 2013. The model outputs were adopted by the CA Energy Commission and CA Independent System Operator for the joint Additional Achievable Energy Efficiency Load Forecast:

2011 Potential Study

The 2011 Potential Study provided a forecast of potential energy savings through 2024, which was used to inform the energy efficiency goals for the 2013-14 portfolio cycle.  Consistent with previous potential studies, the study identified all energy savings that were cost effective, and expected that the market capture on an annual basis.

Past activity:

To view the IOU Potential Model, you can download the free analytica player at

Codes and Standards Model 
Behavior Potential Model

Previous Goals and Potential Studies


Last Modified: 10/20/2015

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