This page documents the probabilistic modeling initiative being undertaken as part of the Resource Adequacy Rulemaking R.11-10-023., It contains:
- January 27, 2014: Resource Adequacy Staff Proposals Workshop
- Energy Division Presentation: Effective Load Carrying Capability and Qualifying Capacity for Wind and Solar, Qualifying and Effective Flexible Capacity for Storage and Demand Response, and RA Implementation Staff Proposals
- November 26, 2013: Reliability Modeling and Draft Staff Recommendations
- October 15, 2013: Resource Adequacy Workshop
- Load shapes, 1980-2012 - Last updated December 19, 2013
- Each of the Excel files linked below contains hourly demand values in MW for each region being modeled, in the weather year shown. These values are based on historical weather data (because load is largely driven by weather) but are adjusted to 2012 load levels (to reflect economic and demographic changes since 1980). For example, the 1985 load shapes reflect what we would expect the load to have been in 2012, if 2012 had had weather identical to that in 1985. For more information on how these load shapes were developed, see the Probabilistic Reliability Modeling Inputs and Assumptions documents, linked above.
- Note that Mexico and Wyoming are not included in the load shapes; they are being modeled as scaled versions of the SDG&E and Utah loads, respectively.