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Probabilistic Reliability Modeling Documentation

This page documents the probabilistic modeling initiative being undertaken as part of the Resource Adequacy Rulemaking R.11-10-023.,  It contains:

Workshop Materials

Staff Proposals, Recommendations, White Papers, and Other Documents

Modeling Input Data for Download

  • Load shapes, 1980-2012 - Last updated December 19, 2013
    • Each of the Excel files linked below contains hourly demand values in MW for each region being modeled, in the weather year shown.  These values are based on historical weather data (because load is largely driven by weather) but are adjusted to 2012 load levels (to reflect economic and demographic changes since 1980).  For example, the 1985 load shapes reflect what we would expect the load to have been in 2012, if 2012 had had weather identical to that in 1985.  For more information on how these load shapes were developed, see the Probabilistic Reliability Modeling Inputs and Assumptions documents, linked above.
    • Note that Mexico and Wyoming are not included in the load shapes; they are being modeled as scaled versions of the SDG&E and Utah loads, respectively.
    • Fuel Price Curves
    • Resources used in ELCC model
    • Wind Production Factors



Last Modified: 9/8/2015

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