Unified RA and IRP Modeling Datasets 2018

This page lists unified modeling input datasets and scenarios used by Energy Division to model the electric and gas system, typically in support of the Resource Adequacy (RA) and Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) proceedings.  2018 is the first year Energy Division has posted comprehensive datasets and expects to post periodic updates every one or two calendar years, depending on the needs of CPUC proceedings.

Modeling Input Datasets 

The production cost model used by Energy Division is the SERVM model developed by Astrape Consulting. The fundamental inputs and datasets are described and available for download below.  The detailed setup and data development for the SERVM model is described in the most recent version of the Unified RA and IRP Inputs and Assumptions – Guidance for Production Cost Modeling and Network Reliability Studies document found under the “IRP Modeling and Analytics” section of the Energy Resource Modeling Projects page.

Regional Breakdown of WECC for modeling purposes  

 

For modeling purposes, the Balancing Authority Areas (BAAs) of WECC are aggregated and grouped into 24 total regions, 8 inside California and 16 external to California. The regions are mapped to actual BAAs in this workbook: Master Region Lookup. This workbook also includes region mapping for the RESOLVE model used in the IRP proceeding.  For areas outside the CAISO footprint, a region in the SERVM model generally represents a Balancing Authority Area (or a large portion of a BAA) within the Western Interconnect (referred to as the "WECC" area for short). In contrast, the CAISO footprint is modeled as four regions (to model potential congestion between these regions): PG&E Valley, PG&E Bay, SCE, and SDG&E. The modeled flow limits and wheeling rates (before addition of any desired carbon adders) between each region are tabulated in this workbook: Transmission Flow Limits and Hurdle Rates Before and After Carbon Adder.  

 

Hourly Electricity Consumption Shapes  

Each shape file below contains hourly load in MW for a particular study (target) year. Columns correspond to each of 24 regions modeled in SERVM. Rows correspond to hours of the year for 35 weather years, i.e. 35 different versions of the study year, each version based on weather from one of the historical years 1980 through 2014. Each of the 35 versions of a particular study year are scaled and stretched to match that study year’s annual peak and energy consumption levels as forecasted by the California Energy Commission (CEC)'s adopted Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR).
Each year uses the 1990 calendar, meaning the first day of the year is a Monday, and all holidays and weekends correspond to 1990 dates. These hourly shapes were generated using a weather normalization process described in the Unified RA and IRP Inputs and Assumptions document referenced above.

Load profiles based on the 2017 IEPR demand forecast:

·         Annual Peak and Total Consumption values used in SERVM (5-1-2018)

·         Load Shapes for 2020 Study Year (11-05-2018) (used for RA studies)

·         Load Shapes for 2022 Study Year (5-1-2018)

·         Load Shapes for 2026 Study Year (5-1-2018)

·         Load Shapes for 2030 Study Year (5-1-2018)

50% RPS Default and 42 MMT Core portfolios from 2017-18 IRP Reference System Plan

 The files below are workbooks that map the aggregated resource types in the IRP’s RESOLVE model to available unit-level information for porting to full production cost models. Unit-level information is generally available for CAISO area baseline resources and coarse geographic information is associated with new (generic) resources and non-CAISO area resources.

The file below maps resources from the version of RESOLVE calibrated with the 2017 IEPR demand forecast. This corresponds to the portfolio modeled in the SERVM results reported in the July 13, 2018 Modeling Advisory Group webinar.

IRP Hybrid Conforming Aggregated LSE Portfolio Unit List: Baseline Existing and New Units

 The comprehensive unit list zip file below contains several files itemizing and specifying each baseline and new unit modeled. This dataset incorporates a 40 year age-based retirement assumption for all fossil thermal units in the CAISO area. It also identifies whether particular Out-Of-State (OOS) units are treated as directly delivering energy to the CAISO area with the tag “remote generator.” The zip file also includes a README and a data dictionary.

The aggregated LSE new units summary below compares the Reference System Plan (using the 2017 IEPR), the original aggregation of LSE new units, and the adjusted aggregation of LSE new units (adjusted to fit within the RESOLVE model’s assumed physical constraints).

The battery storage summary illustrates how existing battery storage, battery storage projected from the CPUC Storage “Mandate” for IOUs, and LSE reported new battery storage build are combined and reconciled.

Load and Resource Output Reports from the SERVM model
The SERVM model generates load and resource reports that summarize the load and resource balance by generation category for the study year and includes unit-level data on monthly nameplate capacity and region where the generator is located. The first worksheet in each workbook contains unit-level data while the other worksheets pivot on the load and resource balance by generation category. These reports are produced at the completion of studies.

Transmission-level Busbar Information for use in the 2018-19 TPP  

The allocation of new renewables included in the RESOLVE model's 50% RPS Default Core case and 42 MMT Core case to busbar are provided by the CEC's siting department.  That information is linked here: CEC Proof-of-Concept to Allocate Selected Renewables to Specific Locations.

For the purpose of mapping to busbar, the locations of energy storage procured to date are provided here: Combined IOU Storage Procurement 2017 Update Public

Guidance on allocating other resource types to busbar is provided in the most recent version of the Unified RA and IRP Inputs and Assumptions document found under the “IRP Modeling and Analytics” section of the Energy Resource Modeling Projects page.

Intermittent Generation Profiles

 Each zip file below contains hourly electricity production in MW for the intermittent generators assumed to be operating in the target study year, for the California regions in the SERVM model. The contents of the zip file are divided into three files to manage file size. They are organized by regions: non-CAISO California regions (IID, LADWP, SMUD, and TID areas), CAISO North of Path 26 (PG&E area) and CAISO South of Path 26 (SCE and SDG&E areas).
Generators that are not online in any given study year will have 0 production in each hour. Each row represents one hour of MW output in a year corresponding to weather from each year of 1980 through 2014. There are 35 x 8760 rows. In leap years, the last day of the year is truncated so all years are 8760 hours in length. Columns represent the modeled units and region. The top row lists a “capmax” value for that column’s unit. This value is not necessarily the nameplate capacity of the unit (due to greater than unity inverter loading ratio for solar PV units). To lookup nameplate capacity for units, refer to the Load and Resource Report workbooks referenced above.

IRP Hybrid Conforming Portfolio Intermittent Generation Profiles for 2030

In addition to incorporating the hybrid conforming new build, staff made one correction to the 2030 intermittent generation profiles so that BTM PV energy production would better align with the 2017 IEPR demand forecast projection of BTM PV production. Staff removed the inverter overloading of 1.1 which effectively scales down energy production about 10%. The corrected set of 2030 profiles is posted below and will be used to model the Hybrid Conforming Aggregated LSE Portfolio in the IRP production cost modeling occurring in November 2018.

 Hydro Generation Profiles

Fuel and Carbon Prices

The files linked below include other important assumptions and inputs typically needed for modeling the WECC area with hourly detail in a production cost modeling environment.

 

 

   


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