SERVM Model Input Data for Hybrid Conforming Aggregated LSE Portfolio 2030 Studies

The data that CPUC staff uses in the SERVM model to conduct production cost modeling on the 2030 Hybrid Conforming aggregated LSE portfolio is available for download on this page.  The data represent a sufficient set of information for other production cost modeling parties to use to conduct their own modeling.  The data are not exhaustive of all input data as some details are confidential, for example, operational attributes of individual generation units.

Zonal model transmission flow limits and hurdle rates

For modeling purposes, the Balancing Authority Areas of WECC are aggregated and grouped into 24 total regions, 8 inside California and 16 outside California. The modeled flow limits and hurdle rates (before addition of any desired carbon adders) between each region are tabulated in this workbook: Transmission Flow Limits and Hurdle Rates Before and After Carbon Adder.

Hourly Electricity Consumption Shapes  

The hourly load profile below contains projected hourly consumption load in MW for 2030. Columns correspond to each of 24 regions modeled in SERVM. Rows correspond to hours of the year for 35 weather years, i.e. 35 different versions of the study year, each version based on weather from one of the historical years 1980 through 2014. Each year uses the 1990 calendar, meaning the first day of the year is a Monday, and all holidays and weekends correspond to 1990 dates.

Load Shapes for 2030 Study Year (05-01-2018)

The following file summarizes by region annual peak and energy consumption load.  California data is based on the California Energy Commission’s 2017 IEPR Demand Forecast.  Non-California data is based on the TEPPC 2026 Common Case v2.0.

Annual Peak and Total Consumption values used in SERVM (05-01-2018)

Hybrid Conforming Aggregated LSE Portfolio Unit List: Baseline Existing and New Units

The comprehensive unit list zip file below contains several files itemizing and specifying each baseline and new unit modeled. This dataset incorporates a 40 year age-based retirement assumption for all fossil thermal units in the CAISO area. It also identifies whether particular Out-Of-State (OOS) units are treated as directly delivering energy to the CAISO area with the tag “remote generator.” The zip file also includes a README and a data dictionary.

The aggregated LSE new units summary below compares the Reference System Plan (using the 2017 IEPR), the original aggregation of LSE new units, and the adjusted aggregation of LSE new units (adjusted to fit within the RESOLVE model’s assumed physical constraints). The battery storage summary illustrates how existing battery storage, battery storage projected from the CPUC Storage “Mandate” for IOUs, and LSE reported new battery storage build are combined and reconciled. 

Comprehensive Baseline and New Unit List (11-26-2018)

Summary of Aggregated LSE New Units Only (11-05-2018)

Summary of Battery Storage Only (11-05-2018)

Intermittent Generation Profiles

Each zip file below contains hourly electricity production in MW for the intermittent generators assumed to be operating in 2030, for the California regions in the SERVM model. The contents of the zip file are divided into three files to manage file size. They are organized by regions: non-CAISO California regions (IID, LADWP, SMUD, and TID areas), CAISO North of Path 26 (PG&E area) and CAISO South of Path 26 (SCE and SDG&E areas).

Generators that are not online in any given study year will have 0 production in each hour. Each row represents one hour of MW output in a year corresponding to weather from each year of 1980 through 2014. There are 35 x 8760 rows. In leap years, the last day of the year is truncated so all years are 8760 hours in length. Columns represent the modeled units and region. The top row lists a “capmax” value for that column’s unit. This value is not necessarily the nameplate capacity of the unit (due to greater than unity inverter loading ratio for solar PV units). To lookup nameplate capacity for units, refer to the Hybrid Conforming Portfolio Unit List workbooks referenced above.

Profiles for 2017 IEPR Demand Forecast AAEE, BTM PV and AAPV,EV charging, and TOU effects are included within this file.

Hybrid Conforming Portfolio 2030 Intermittent Generation Profiles (11-05-2018)

Hydro Generation Profiles

Hydro Generation Profiles 1980-2014 (08-01-2018)

Fuel and Carbon Prices

Fuel Price Curves in 2016 dollars based on the California Energy Commission’s April 2018 NAMGas Model posted to the Natural Gas Burner Tip Prices page

Carbon Allowance Prices based on the California Energy Commission’s 2017 IEPR

Dollar Deflators for adjusting to real dollars in a chosen year were extracted from the April 2018 NAMGas model

Further Explanatory Documentation on Data Development

Refer to the Unified RA and IRP Modeling Datasets page for further documentation describing the data above.

 

 

 


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