System Reliability Modeling Datasets 2026

The primary use cases for this vintage of data are:

  • Resource Adequacy proceeding 2028 LOLE study for PRM determination and Slice of Day Translation, expected August 2026
  • Other modeling work in 2026-2027 that is not yet scoped

Descriptions of data sources and development methods are in this Proposed Inputs and Assumptions, SERVM 2026 Data Updates in Support of Resource Adequacy (RA) and Integrated Resource Planning (IRP).

Electricity Consumption, Managed, and Demand Modifier Profiles

The following files contain hourly system electricity consumption and managed demand profiles (in MW) for all regions modeled, including any demand modifiers, for the years indicated in the file name. Weather-dependent profiles are provided for weather years 2000-2024. Median annual energy and peak demand for all California regions are derived from the 2025 IEPR California Energy Demand Forecast, 2025-2045. Median annual energy and peak demand for non-California regions are derived from publicly available IRPs from non-California LSEs, FERC Form 714, and EIA Form 861M (Net Metering data for BTMPV extrapolation from historical).

  • Hourly Load Components for California regions only, 2000-2024 weather, medians consistent with 2025 IEPR demand forecast Planning Scenario (no Known Loads).  Non-California regions will be posted soon.

These files are intended to be consistent with the 2025 IEPR as-is. Modeling for IRP purposes also assumes linear phase out of BTM CHP between 2036 and 2040. Demand that would have been met with BTM CHP is assumed to persist. “with BTM CHP phaseout” versions of these hourly files will be posted later this year.

Generating Units

The Baseline Generator List of resources modeled in SERVM consists of online and in-development resources.  Online resource data was drawn from the CAISO Master Generating Capability Lists as of August 2025. In-Development resource data was drawn from the CAISO Generation Interconnection Resource ID Report as of August 2025.  Retirement data was drawn from the September 2025 CAISO Retirement and Mothball List.  Non-CAISO resource data was drawn from the WECC Anchor Data Set 2034.  This Baseline Generator List adds more than 200 new units and implements some technology category corrections relative to the prior vintage (BaselineGeneratorList_ExternalBuildCalibration_v20241125).

  • Baseline Generator List version April 2026 (coming April 2026)

Portfolio/Use-case-specific generator lists incremental to the Baseline Generator List are below:

  • TBD

SERVM-specific Hydroelectric Input Variables

The following file contains SERVM-specific input variables defining hydro unit inputs. It can be used to develop hydro unit inputs for other production cost models. The inputs were developed from 25 years (2000-2024) of monthly data from the EIA Form 906/923 and multiple recent years of hourly data (2020-2024). The source data was translated into monthly generation, daily minimum, average, and maximum generation, and monthly maximum output parameters. SERVM models aggregated hydro units, one for each region, to represent all of the individual hydro units within a region. SERVM schedules the hydro according to the net load conditions of a given scenario (a particular weather year and a particular hydro year, which are not necessarily the same historical year). The CAISO hydro variables are disaggregated into “scheduled hydro” (nRoR) and “run-of-river” (RoR) hydro categories by region (PGE and SCE). Northwest hydro is split into two portions each serving BPAT and CAISO.

  • SERVM Hydro Variables, 2000-2024 hydro conditions (coming April 2026)

Variable Generation Hourly Profiles

The following files contain variable generation hourly production profiles (in MW) for all regions modeled, for weather years 2000-2024. The profiles are sized according to the installed capacity listed in each of the portfolios named below. The profiles are aggregated up into unit category totals per region.

  • Variable Gen Hourly Profiles, 2000-2022 weather, Baseline Generator List version April 2026
    • 2028 (coming April 2026)

Portfolio/Use-case-specific profiles are below:

  • TBD

Normalized Variable Generation Hourly Profiles

The (large) zip file below contains NORMALIZED variable generation hourly production profiles for all regions modeled, for weather years 2000-2024. It can be used to develop profiles for other production cost models. Normalized profiles need to be mapped to a particular unit using the “weather station” variable. Then, that particular unit’s installed capacity and other technology attributes determine the final magnitude and shape of the production profile modeled in SERVM. The Baseline Generator List and Portfolio/Use-case-specific generator lists above include the weather station and the installed capacity of each variable generation unit to match with a normalized profile to create the final production profile corresponding to that unit that is modeled in SERVM. The zip file below includes a README describing the contents and steps to derive final production profiles from normalized profiles.

  • Normalized Solar Wind Profiles, 2000-2024 weather (coming April 2026)

Representation of the CAISO Transmission System and Neighbors 

The following file specifies the regions, transfer limits (MW), and hurdles (2024 real dollars) that are modeled in SERVM. Hurdles for paths crossing into California include the 2025 IEPR mid-case GHG price forecast on top of the hurdle. Other descriptive details are in the file.

  • Region Transfer Limits and Hurdles version April 2026 (coming April 2026)  

Burner-Tip Fuel and Carbon Prices

The following files specify the monthly fuel and transport prices and annual GHG prices, all in 2024 real dollars, used in SERVM.  A generating unit's fuel price plus transport cost represents the burner-tip for that unit. Fuel and transport prices were updated in Q4 2024 - Q1 2025 to better match available CAISO data and the CEC’s NAMGas Model data.

  • Fuel and Transport Costs version April 2026 (coming April 2026)  
  • GHG Emissions Forecasts version April 2026 (coming April 2026)