Unified RA and IRP Modeling Datasets 2022
This page lists unified modeling input datasets and scenarios used by Energy Division to model the electric and gas system, typically in support of the Resource Adequacy (RA) and Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) proceedings. The probabilistic system reliability and production cost model used by Energy Division is the SERVM model developed by Astrapé Consulting. In 2022, Energy Division updated inputs to support modeling for the 2022 IRP cycle. The key inputs to the SERVM model in support of this work are provided on this page. Information on other Energy Resource Modeling projects can be found here.
Modeling Input Datasets – May 2022
Electricity Consumption Profiles
Hourly MW consumption profiles for the indicated study year, for the three CAISO regions modeled, based on 1998-2020 weather. Median annual energy and peak demand is based on the CEC’s 2021 IEPR demand forecast. SERVM’s modeled consumption is developed from the CEC’s managed forecast by backing out the effects of BTM PV, BTM storage, AAEE, AAFS, TOU rates, and electric vehicle (light/medium/heavy duty) charging load. Each of these demand modifier components are explicitly modeled in SERVM.
This file itemizes all units and installed capacity in MW modeled in SERVM for the study years indicated in the file (2023, 2024, 2026, 2030, 2035). It includes baseline units consolidated with aggregated LSE IRP filings from 2020 and procurement ordered in the Mid-Term-Reliability Decision (D.)21-06-035, plus RESOLVE-selected incremental capacity, if applicable.
Hydro Generation Profiles
Hourly MW profiles for the indicated study year, based on 1998-2020 hydro patterns
Renewables Generation Profiles
Hourly MW profiles for the indicated study year, for all unit categories in the three CAISO regions modeled, based on 1998-2020 weather patterns.
Besides utility-scale solar and wind categories, these files include the following categories of demand modifiers as well as north and south import shapes:
- AAEE – Additional Achievable Energy Efficiency
- AAFS – Additional Achievable Fuel Switching
- BTMPV – Behind-The-Meter solar PV
- BTMStorageShapeCharge – Charging profile of BTM storage
- BTMStorageShapeDischarge – Discharging profile of BTM storage
- EV – Light and med-heavy-duty Electric Vehicles
- TOU_LoadIncrease – Time-Of-Use rate impacts that increase hourly load
- TOU_LoadDecrease – Time-Of-Use rate impacts that decrease hourly load
Representation of the CAISO Transmission System and Neighbors
In contrast to prior CPUC modeling with SERVM, these input assumptions include two major changes:
- The PGE_Bay and PGE_Valley regions have been collapsed into one PGE region in the model
- Neighbors external to CAISO are not explicitly modeled. Transfers between CAISO and neighbors are modeled as import profiles. Seasonal relationships (summer, winter, and shoulder) were developed that correlated the average hourly historical (2020-2021 available EIA) import/export value to CAISO and the CAISO hourly net load (demand net solar and wind). These seasonal relationships were then applied to the net load profiles in SERVM for each weather year to create profiles. The import profiles are included in the "Renewables Generation Profiles" above.
The transmission capability and hurdle rate data in the file above still includes data for transfers between all regions of the WECC, as well as updated intra-CAISO transfer capability that is used for 2022 IRP modeling. Staff plans to return to modeling neighbors explicitly when there is time to systematically update load and resource assumptions for non-CAISO regions across the WECC.
Fuel and Carbon Prices