System Reliability Modeling Datasets 2025

The primary use cases for this vintage of data are:

Descriptions of data sources and development methods can be found in this 2025 vintage of IRP Inputs and Assumptions.

Electricity Consumption, Managed, and Demand Modifier Profiles

The following files contain hourly system electricity consumption and managed demand profiles (in MW) for all regions modeled, including any demand modifiers, for the years indicated in the file name. Weather-dependent profiles are provided for weather years 2000-2022. Median annual energy and peak demand for all California regions are derived from the 2024 IEPR California Energy Demand Forecast, 2024-2040. Median annual energy and peak demand for non-California regions are derived from the WECC Anchor Data Set2032, publicly available IRPs from non-California LSEs, the 2023 vintage of FERC Form 714, and EIA Form 861M (Net Metering data for BTMPV extrapolation from historical). These profiles include the hour-offset correction described in this February 2025 RA workshop presentation.

“with BTM CHP Phaseout” means assumed complete phase out of BTM CHP in 2040 and beyond. Demand that would have been met with BTM CHP is assumed to persist.

Generating Units

The Baseline Generator List of resources modeled in SERVM consists of online and In-Development resources, consistent with the definition used in the IRP proceeding. Online resource data was drawn from the CAISO Master Generating Capability Lists as of January 2024. In-Development resource data was drawn from LSE IRP Filings and LSE MTR Procurement Order Filings as of December 1, 2023. Non-CAISO resource data was drawn from the WECC Anchor Data Set 2032 and publicly available IRPs from Non-CAISO LSEs. This Baseline Generator List is essentially the same as the prior vintage (BaselineGeneratorList_ExternalBuildCalibration_v20241125), except with inclusion of monthly capping of unit output to NQC for these unit categories: Cogen, Biomass/Biogas, Geothermal. The next major update of the Baseline Generator List will occur in early 2026.

Portfolio/Use-case-specific generator lists incremental to the Baseline Generator List are below:

SERVM-specific Hydroelectric Input Variables

The following file contains SERVM-specific input variables defining hydro unit inputs. It can be used to develop hydro unit inputs for other production cost models. The inputs were developed from 23 years (2000-2022) of monthly data from the EIA and 4 years of hourly data from the CAISO, BPAT, and EIA (2019-2022). The source data was translated into monthly generation, daily minimum, average, and maximum generation, and monthly maximum output parameters. SERVM schedules the hydro according to the net load conditions of a given scenario (a particular weather year and a particular hydro year, which are not necessarily the same historical year). The variables are essentially the same as the prior vintage (ServmHydroVariables_HY2000-2022_20250107) except for two improvements: (1) the CAISO hydro variables are disaggregated into “scheduled hydro” (nRoR) and “run-of-river” (RoR) hydro categories by region (PGE and SCE), and (2) the Northwest hydro is split into two portions each serving BPAT and CAISO.

Variable Generation Hourly Profiles

The following files contain variable generation hourly production profiles (in MW) for all regions modeled, for weather years 2000-2022. The profiles are sized according to the installed capacity listed in each of the portfolios named below. The profiles are aggregated up into unit category totals per region.

  • Variable Gen Hourly Profiles, 2000-2022 weather, Baseline Generator List with External Build and Monthly MW (October 2025)

Portfolio/Use-case-specific profiles are below:

  • Variable Gen Hourly Profiles, 2000-2022 weather, IRP Filing Requirements Least-cost no new gas portfolio including Baseline Generator List (October 2025)
  • Variable Gen Hourly Profiles, 2000-2022 weather, IRP Procurement Track Need Determination Analysis 2028-2032 including Baseline Generator List (October 2025)
  • 2026-2027 TPP Base Case portfolio including Baseline Generator List (coming in December 2025)
    • 2036
    • 2041

Normalized Variable Generation Hourly Profiles

The (large) zip file below contains NORMALIZED variable generation hourly production profiles for all regions modeled, for weather years 2000-2022. It can be used to develop profiles for other production cost models. Normalized profiles need to be mapped to a particular unit using the “weather station” variable. Then, that particular unit’s installed capacity and other technology attributes determine the final magnitude and shape of the production profile modeled in SERVM. The Baseline Generator List and Portfolio/Use-case-specific generator lists above include the weather station and the installed capacity of each variable generation unit to match with a normalized profile to create the final production profile corresponding to that unit that is modeled in SERVM. The zip file below includes a README describing the contents and steps to derive final production profiles from normalized profiles. The normalized profiles are essentially the same as the prior vintage (NormalizedSolarWindProfiles_WY2000-2022_V2024) except for improvements to Offshore Wind and California BTM PV normalized profiles.

  • Normalized Solar Wind Profiles, 2000-2022 weather, with improved Offshore Wind and CA BTM PV (October 2025)

Representation of the CAISO Transmission System and Neighbors

The following file specifies the regions, transfer limits (MW), and hurdles (2022 $) that are modeled in SERVM. Hurdles for paths crossing into California include the 2022 IEPR mid-case GHG price forecast on top of the hurdle. Other descriptive details are in the file.

  • Region Transfer Limits and Hurdles (October 2025)  

Burner-Tip Fuel and Carbon Prices

The following files specify the monthly fuel and transport prices and annual GHG prices, all in 2022 $, used in SERVM.  A generating unit's fuel price plus transport cost represents the burner-tip for that unit. Fuel and transport prices were updated in Q1 2025 to better match available CAISO data and the CEC’s NAMGas Model data.